Curly Butte Ranch — Investment Analysis — Lender Summary
Prepared to support a loan-quality review — not an appraisal, credit approval, or commitment to lend. This summary is built primarily from the property-level financial analysis described here, plus the borrower-supplied off-farm income and other debt obligations entered for the global DSCR figure below; it does not include a full borrower or guarantor financial statement, other collateral, environmental/title/water-rights review, or any specific lender's underwriting policy. Independent underwriting, appraisal, and due diligence — including verification of any borrower financial figures shown — are required before any credit decision.
Loan & collateral summary
| Purchase price | $48,500,000 |
| Property size / price per acre | 21,452.25 acres · $2,261/acre |
| Land value (going-in) | $39,175,000 (80.8% of purchase price) |
| Improvement value (going-in) | $9,325,000 |
| Total cash invested (borrower equity at closing) | $31,750,000 |
| Loan amount | $16,975,000 |
| Loan-to-value (LTV) at closing | 35.0% |
| Interest rate | 6.00% |
| Amortization / loan term | 25-year amortization, 10-year term (balloon due year 10) |
| Payment frequency | Annual |
Borrower financial capacity (as entered — not independently verified)
| Off-farm / other household income (annual) | $375,000 |
| Other debt obligations (annual) | $40,000 |
| Global DSCR (Year 1) | 1.32x |
Global DSCR = (property NOI + off-farm/other income) ÷ (property debt service + other debt obligations), for every year of the hold. This combines the property analyzed above with the borrower-supplied income and debt figures entered on the calculator — it is not a verified financial statement, credit report, or full underwriting analysis, and the figures above should be confirmed against actual borrower documentation before use in a credit decision.
Collateral value vs. loan balance
Loan balance amortizing to $0 in the balloon year reflects that balance being retired as a one-time payoff (see Balloon / refinance risk below), not a graphing artifact.
Debt service coverage & loan-to-value — year by year (base case)
Base case only — these figures use the assumptions entered above and are not affected by the stress test. To see NOI and debt service recomputed under the stress-test shocks, see the "Stress test — downside scenario" table further down.
| Year | NOI | Debt service | DSCR | Global DSCR | vs. threshold (global) | Property value | Loan balance | LTV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1,430,235 | $1,327,899 | 1.08x | 1.32x | Meets | $50.26M | $16.67M | 33.2% |
| Year 2 | $1,444,310 | $1,327,899 | 1.09x | 1.33x | Meets | $52.11M | $16.34M | 31.4% |
| Year 3 | $1,458,522 | $1,327,899 | 1.10x | 1.34x | Meets | $54.03M | $15.99M | 29.6% |
| Year 4 | $1,472,873 | $1,327,899 | 1.11x | 1.35x | Meets | $56.48M | $15.62M | 27.7% |
| Year 5 | $1,487,364 | $1,327,899 | 1.12x | 1.36x | Meets | $58.59M | $15.23M | 26.0% |
| Year 6 | $1,501,996 | $1,327,899 | 1.13x | 1.37x | Meets | $60.78M | $14.82M | 24.4% |
| Year 7 | $1,516,771 | $1,327,899 | 1.14x | 1.38x | Meets | $63.08M | $14.38M | 22.8% |
| Year 8 | $1,531,690 | $1,327,899 | 1.15x | 1.39x | Meets | $65.48M | $13.91M | 21.2% |
| Year 9 | $1,546,754 | $1,327,899 | 1.16x | 1.40x | Meets | $67.98M | $13.42M | 19.7% |
| Year 10 | $1,561,966 | $14,224,780* | 1.18x | 1.42x | Meets | $70.60M | $0 | 0.0% |
* Debt service in the balloon-payoff year includes the one-time payoff of the remaining loan balance (see Balloon / refinance risk below) — DSCR that year reflects coverage of the regular scheduled payment only, not the payoff, so the two figures won't appear to reconcile at a glance.
10 of 10 scored years fall below the 1.30x threshold, the lowest being Year 1 at 1.08x.
Global DSCR (incorporating the borrower financial capacity entered below): stays at or above the 1.30x threshold in every scored year — the tightest year is Year 1 at 1.32x.
Balloon / refinance risk
| Balloon due | Year 10 |
| Projected payoff balance | $12,896,881 |
| Projected property value, Year 10 | $70,603,577 |
| Implied refinance LTV | 18.3% |
The balloon lands exactly at the modeled exit, so it is retired from sale proceeds rather than refinanced — the implied LTV above shows how much collateral cushion exists at that point if a sale does not occur as planned and a refinance is needed instead. This is a projection based on the appreciation assumptions above, not an appraisal or a refinance commitment.
Stress test — downside scenario
Same property, same math, rerun with: income -10% (across the full hold), expenses +10% (across the full hold), interest rate +100 bps (stressed rate: 7.00%) — the rate shock applies for the loan's full term regardless of either window. The columns below show NOI and debt service in dollars, side by side with base case, so you can see exactly what the shock changed before it flows through to the DSCR and LTV ratios. Global DSCR reuses the same off-farm income and other debt figures entered above for the base case — those inputs are not shocked; only the property's own NOI and debt service change under the stress scenario.
| Year | Base NOI | Stressed NOI | Base debt service | Stressed debt service | Base DSCR | Stressed DSCR | Base Global DSCR | Stressed Global DSCR | vs. threshold (global) | Base LTV | Stressed LTV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1,430,235 | $1,278,112 | $1,327,899 | $1,456,634 | 1.08x | 0.88x | 1.32x | 1.10x | Below | 33.2% | 33.2% |
| Year 2 | $1,444,310 | $1,290,643 | $1,327,899 | $1,456,634 | 1.09x | 0.89x | 1.33x | 1.11x | Below | 31.4% | 31.5% |
| Year 3 | $1,458,522 | $1,303,295 | $1,327,899 | $1,456,634 | 1.10x | 0.89x | 1.34x | 1.12x | Below | 29.6% | 29.8% |
| Year 4 | $1,472,873 | $1,316,070 | $1,327,899 | $1,456,634 | 1.11x | 0.90x | 1.35x | 1.13x | Below | 27.7% | 27.9% |
| Year 5 | $1,487,364 | $1,328,969 | $1,327,899 | $1,456,634 | 1.12x | 0.91x | 1.36x | 1.14x | Below | 26.0% | 26.3% |
| Year 6 | $1,501,996 | $1,341,993 | $1,327,899 | $1,456,634 | 1.13x | 0.92x | 1.37x | 1.15x | Below | 24.4% | 24.8% |
| Year 7 | $1,516,771 | $1,355,144 | $1,327,899 | $1,456,634 | 1.14x | 0.93x | 1.38x | 1.16x | Below | 22.8% | 23.2% |
| Year 8 | $1,531,690 | $1,368,421 | $1,327,899 | $1,456,634 | 1.15x | 0.94x | 1.39x | 1.16x | Below | 21.2% | 21.7% |
| Year 9 | $1,546,754 | $1,381,828 | $1,327,899 | $1,456,634 | 1.16x | 0.95x | 1.40x | 1.17x | Below | 19.7% | 20.2% |
| Year 10 | $1,561,966 | $1,395,364 | $14,224,780* | $14,723,526* | 1.18x | 0.96x | 1.42x | 1.18x | Below | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Debt service in the balloon-payoff year includes the one-time payoff of the remaining loan balance in both the base and stressed columns (see Balloon / refinance risk above) — DSCR that year reflects coverage of the regular scheduled payment only, not the payoff.
Under this downside scenario, 10 of 10 scored years fall below the 1.30x threshold, the lowest being Year 1 at 0.88x (base case: 10 year(s) below threshold).
Global DSCR under this downside scenario (incorporating the borrower financial capacity above): 10 of 10 scored years fall below the 1.30x threshold, the lowest being Year 1 at 1.10x (base case: 0 year(s) below threshold).
Net sale proceeds at exit: $67,073,398 base case vs. $67,073,398 stressed. IRR: 5.76% base case vs. 4.97% stressed.
How these numbers were calculated
Net Operating Income (NOI)
Effective gross income (all lease and rental income, after vacancy) minus operating expenses (property tax, insurance, maintenance, management fee, etc.), before the loan payment or capital improvements.
Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR)
NOI ÷ that year's scheduled loan payment. Shows how many times over the property's own income covers its own debt payment — the standard test for a straight income property, with no allowance for the borrower's other income or obligations. In the year a balloon payment comes due, DSCR is calculated against the regular scheduled payment only — not the one-time balloon payoff — so it reflects ongoing income coverage rather than being distorted by a single maturity event (see the footnote on the DSCR/LTV table above).
Global DSCR
(Property NOI + borrower's off-farm/other household income) ÷ (property debt service + borrower's other debt obligations), for every year of the hold. This is the "global cash flow" approach many ag and recreational-property lenders use instead of, or alongside, property-only DSCR — it recognizes that a ranch, hunting property, or other recreational or lifestyle purchase often isn't expected to service its own debt from its own income alone. The off-farm income and other debt figures are flat annual amounts as entered on the calculator (they do not grow or shrink year to year), so the only thing that varies Global DSCR from year to year is the property's own NOI and debt service.
Loan-to-Value (LTV)
The loan balance for a given year ÷ the property's projected value that same year. A lower LTV means more collateral cushion relative to the debt outstanding.
Underwriting threshold (1.30x on this report)
The minimum DSCR you set on the calculator to flag each year against. This is a value you entered, not a figure this tool determines on its own — different lenders and loan types apply different minimums, so confirm the appropriate threshold with the lender actually reviewing the deal.
Stress test — how the downside scenario is built
The stress scenario reruns the exact same calculation as the base case, with three adjustments: gross income adjusted by -10%, operating expenses adjusted by +10%, and the interest rate adjusted by +100 bps (base rate 6.00% → stressed rate 7.00%). The income adjustment is applied across the full hold — the two are set to the same window here, but they can be scoped independently; years outside a given window use that item's unshocked figures. The rate shock is not scoped to either window — it changes the loan's rate for its entire term, since this calculator models a fixed-rate loan and has no way to represent a rate that temporarily spikes and then reverts. Property value, sale price, and appreciation assumptions are not changed by the income/expense shocks — only cash flow and, via the rate shock, the loan's amortization are affected.