Curly Butte Ranch — Investment Analysis — Scenario Analysis

Curly Butte Ranch — 21,452± acres, South-Central Montana
Prepared for Prospective Buyer (Illustrative Example) · Prepared August 27, 2026 · Prepared by Rimrock Land & Cattle Co.

Best Case and Worst Case are illustrative ranges built from adjustable assumptions set on the calculator — not a statistical or probability-weighted forecast, and not a guarantee that outcomes will fall within this range. Base Case reflects the same assumptions used in the main investment analysis. Review the assumptions behind each case below before relying on this comparison.

Key metrics — Best / Base / Worst

MetricBest CaseBase CaseWorst Case
Cap rate (Year 1)3.26%2.95%2.64%
Cash-on-cash return (Year 1)0.99%0.32%-0.56%
Debt service coverage ratio (Year 1)1.25x1.08x0.88x
Total cash invested$31,750,000$31,750,000$31,750,000
Net sale proceeds (Year 10)$73,801,026$67,073,398$58,014,296
Total cash flow collected-$9,316,287-$11,703,385-$14,953,390
Total ROI103.10%74.39%35.62%
IRR7.54%5.76%3.02%

Scenario assumptions

AssumptionBest CaseBase CaseWorst Case
Income shock+10%Entered as-is-10%
Income shock appliesacross the full hold—across the full hold
Expense shock-5%Entered as-is+10%
Expense shock appliesacross the full hold—across the full hold
Interest rate5.50%6.00%7.00%
Land appreciation5.50%4.50%3.00%
Improvement appreciation1.00%0.00%-1.50%

Income and expense shocks default to the full 10-year hold but can each be windowed to a subset of years, independently for Best Case and Worst Case — see "applies" rows above. Interest rate and appreciation figures above are the actual rate used in each case — Best Case and Worst Case apply a fixed adjustment to the rate entered on the calculator, in effect for the entire hold.

Equity by year — all three cases

Best CaseBase CaseWorst Case
$0$20.00M$40.00M$60.00M$80.00M$100.00MY1Y3Y5Y7Y9Y10

How this comparison was built

Base Case

Exactly the same calculation and assumptions as the main investment analysis — no adjustments applied.

Best Case & Worst Case

The same calculation, rerun with a set of adjustments applied on top of the entered assumptions: gross income shifted by a flat percentage, operating expenses shifted by a flat percentage, the interest rate shifted by a fixed number of basis points (if financed), and the land/improvement appreciation rates shifted by a fixed number of percentage points. The table above shows the resulting interest rate and appreciation rate for each case directly, rather than the shift itself, so you can see exactly what rate each case assumes. The income and expense shocks can each be limited to a specific span of years — see the "applies" rows in the table above — while the interest rate and appreciation adjustments always apply for the entire holding period.

Why include an appreciation delta

For a land-value-driven acquisition, the exit sale price is often the single largest driver of total return — a scenario range that only shocked income, expenses, and interest rate would understate how different a true best or worst outcome could look. Adjusting the appreciation assumption directly captures that.

What this is — and isn't. The Best Case and Worst Case adjustments above are starting points you can change on the calculator for each deal — they are not derived from any statistical model, market data set, or probability distribution, and the true range of outcomes for any given property could fall outside them in either direction. Use this as a way to show a range and prompt a conversation about risk, not as a guarantee of the boundaries of possible outcomes.